https://x.com/GowriSankarD_/status/2048271716494004642
TN Assembly 2026 Projections: A Deep Dive 
ADMK+ (154) 
Strong alliance strategy + anti-incumbency wave working in their favor.
DMK+ (79) 
Major setback compared to 2021; likely moving to opposition benches.
TVK (1) 
The “Vijay Factor” makes an entry and opens its account.
NTK (0) 
Struggling to convert vote share into seats.
Total Seats: 234
Majority Mark: 118
ADMK+ (154)
Strong alliance strategy + anti-incumbency wave working in their favor.
DMK+ (79)
Major setback compared to 2021; likely moving to opposition benches.
TVK (1)
The “Vijay Factor” makes an entry and opens its account.
NTK (0)
Struggling to convert vote share into seats.
Total Seats: 234
Majority Mark: 118MK’s performance when they had ruled the state & faced an election.
2011: 23 seats
2001: 31 seats
1991: 2 seats
1977: 48 seats
The fact of the matter is that post 1977 they had never won an election either as an incumbent or as a Govt which was dismissed.
If we don’t include 1977 their best performance was 31 seats & if we include 1977 it was 48 seats.
2026 
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