ALARMING RISE IN INDIA'S MUSLIM POPULATION in India

 ALARMING RISE IN INDIA'S MUSLIM POPULATION AND WHY STOPGAP MEASURES WON'T WORK

https://x.com/ByRakeshSimha/status/2014910210209677488?s=20 1/12: Hindus in India are facing mounting demographic pressures that threaten their long-term cultural, social and political dominance. This isn't paranoia — it's rooted in data showing fertility rate gaps and localized population shifts. 2/12: First, the numbers. According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-2021), Hindu Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.94, below the replacement level of 2.1. Muslim TFR is 2.36, still above replacement. This gap means Hindu populations are shrinking relative to others over generations. 3/12: While India's overall TFR is 2.0 and declining across groups, the differential compounds. In 1951, Hindus were ~84% of the population; by 2011, ~79.8%. Projections suggest by 2051, it could drop to ~75% or lower if trends hold. Small annual changes add up to big shifts. 4/12: But the real concern is not just national — it's hyper-local. In "disturbed areas," demographic changes lead to tensions, forcing Hindu families to sell properties under duress. Gujarat's 1991 Disturbed Areas Act protected 770 localities from such distress sales, stabilising neighborhoods for 35 years. 5/12: Rajasthan just approved a similar bill on Jan 21, 2026, allowing the government to declare areas "disturbed" based on riots or imbalances, requiring approval for property transfers. Penalties: 3-5 years jail. It's modeled on Gujarat's success in preventing exploitation during unrest. 6/12: These laws work as band-aids — they stop immediate displacement. Families get legal backing to resist pressure. But they don't fix the root: the fertility gap. As Swarajya Magazine notes, Gujarat's protected zones stayed stable, but the broader demographic "sea" kept rising around them. (Link in comments.) 7/12: Why is this existential? Below-replacement TFR means Hindus risk becoming a minority in their homeland, eroding political influence, cultural festivals, temple management, and even laws like UCC. Localised shifts create "no-go" zones, fuelling communal strife and identity loss. 8/12: History shows demographic majorities matter — look at Lebanon's Christian decline or Kosovo's shifts leading to conflict. In India, it could mean more riots, vote-bank politics favouring minorities, and erosion of Hindu traditions. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat warned in 2016: Societies below replacement "go extinct." 9/12: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's 2024 committee on population challenges hasn't met. Census 2027 is delayed. Bhagwat urges 3+ kids per family, but there is no policy push. Property laws buy time, but without boosting Hindu TFR or equalising rates, pressure rebuilds in 20-30 years. 10/12: So, what's the fix? Some argue for incentives: tax breaks for larger families, education campaigns, or women's empowerment to close gaps (as Muslim TFR drops with literacy). But these are slow, voluntary and politically tricky in a democracy wary of "population control". 11/12: The practical option is a benign Hindu dictatorship on the Singapore model. Like Lee Kuan Yew's authoritarian meritocracy — strict, efficient, growth focused — but tailored to India. It could enforce uniform family policies, promote Hindu cultural revival, and curb imbalances without violence. 12/12: Singapore thrived under "soft authoritarianism": Low corruption, high GDP, multi-ethnic harmony via top-down rules. In India, it might mean a strong leader prioritising demographic stability, economic reforms and unity. Is it the only solution? Debatable, but democracy's gridlock makes it tempting.

Rajasthan's Disturbed Areas Bill Is Necessary, But Not Sufficient To Address Demographic Anxieties

Swarajya Staff

Jan 23, 2026  https://swarajyamag.com/states/rajasthans-disturbed-areas-bill-is-necessary-but-not-sufficient-to-address-demographic-anxieties?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email